Will the arrest of an ex-FARC chief threaten peace in Colombia?

Bogota, Colombia – The arrest of a frail top FARC commander last week has attach an already fragile peace deal below extra stress, nonetheless may well well abet bolster the peace process in the lengthy flee, reckoning on how the expenses are executed, in line with analysts.

The deal between the left-hover insurrection teams Innovative Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the deliver, signed in lifeless 2016, formally ended Fifty two years of war that had left an estimated 222,000 folks ineffective and more than seven million displaced.

In spite of having got end to-usual praise on the arena stage, domestically, Colombia’s landmark peace accord has never got the an analogous stage of recognition.

Following delays in its implementation and corruption scandals, the system encountered one other setback this week when Seuxis Hernandez, better identified as Jesus Santrich, became charged by US courts and the Colombian overall prosecutor with conspiracy to ship 10,000kg of cocaine – with a boulevard ticket of $320m – to the US.

Per analysts, the expenses pose some serious disorders for the peace accord by extra adversarial have faith with the FARC, doubtlessly shocking ex-rebels into joining dissident rebels and doubtlessly swelling make stronger for reversing an already unpopular settlement.

« Right here is a prime blow for the political standing of the FARC, » said Jorge Restrepo, director of the War Prognosis Institute, CERAC.

« They did no longer secure more than 50,000 votes in the elections – [the arrest] shows there became motive in the bulk of Colombians who did no longer have faith them to desert organised crime, » he added, relating to last month’s elections that noticed the FARC take half as a political birthday party for the first time.

A setback for have faith in FARC?

With their history of drug-trafficking, kidnapping, extortion and massacres, building societal have faith in the FARC became never going to be easy, analysts mutter. 

A natty sector of the inhabitants composed doubts their skill to reform themselves from narco-criminals to usual citizens and despise the special judicial arrangements in the peace accord, which are perceived to let ex-rebels off easy for serious crimes they’ve dedicated reminiscent of kidnap, kill and drug-trafficking.

Per a Gallup poll from February, seventy three p.c of these interviewed said they invent out no longer think referring to the FARC will agree to what became agreed on in the accords. 

Trusting these folk ideal turned more subtle when it became published that Santrich, who executed a characteristic in the ancient peace negotiations in Havana, had allegedly persevered to behavior illicit actions after the deal became signed.

The blind commander became furthermore one in every of 10 frail insurrection leaders guaranteed a seat in congress in line with the peace deal, those who critics argue must composed no longer be in politics nonetheless jailed for life for their past actions.

« I invent no longer realize how this may well happen, » frail Vice President Francisco Santos Calderon informed Al Jazeera. 

« Somebody who correct received a huge prize of having all his crimes cleaned will get caught drug-trafficking? It offers the peace big complications, and it offers the organisation big complications ».

‘Who will be next?’

In response to the shock arrest, President Juan Manuel Santos launched his « hand is no longer going to waiver » in extraditing Santrich if he’s stumbled on responsible. The prospect of jail and extradition to the US, nonetheless, has precipitated quite a lot of madden amongst the FARC who continue protesting the innocence of their comrade and reiterating the skill negative consequences for the peace deal at a considerable juncture. 

« With the have of our comrade Jesus Santrich the peace process finds itself at its most well-known point and threatens to be an correct failure, » launched Ivan Marquez, one other high-ranking FARC chief.

The frail rebels furthermore claim the arrest is a conspiratorial pass – « orchestrated by the US alongside with the final public prosecution » – which became hatched when US Attorney Identical outdated Jeff Sessions became in Colombia last December.

The claims come without reference to allegedly dependable video and written evidence and the have of his three FARC co-conspirators, nonetheless without reference to the truth late the accusations, the FARC’s fears may well well composed have an effect on all.

« They’re slicing heads and making issues as much as jail FARC leaders, clearly following orders from the Pentagon », Jorge Tavarich, a demobilised insurrection at the moment residing in a devoted FARC reincorporation zone informed Al Jazeera.

« We’re all a diminutive of anxious, because, who will be next? » he said. 

As a result of presidency’s perceived incapability to agree to their pause of the peace deal, some 1,200 frail FARC rebels did no longer demobilise and as a replacement joined dissident teams, in line with protection force figures from March. 

The likelihood of a beefy U-flip by the FARC is next to zero, nonetheless the likelihood of usual terror pushing more frail fighters to be half of the dissidents is extremely dependable, in line with analysts.  

« Obviously, the likelihood is that definite ex-guerillas feel that guarantees are no longer being met and may well per chance are seeking to return to palms », said Yann Basset, a political analyst at La Universidad del Rosario, Bogota.

« It is miles therefore most well-known for the judicial system to behave with all transparency and forcefulness in the evidence supplied by the prosecution, and for the government to behave prudently and clearly speak demobilised guerrillas of the space, » Basset informed Al Jazeera.

Restore faith in the peace process?

More in most cases, nonetheless, consultants mutter that while the construction may well well also develop the already dependable anti-peace accord sentiment, it may in all probability well well furthermore restore faith in the system, reckoning on the consequences of the judicial process and positions taken in politics.

« It is miles determined by how the political institutions act and political leaders react », CERAC’s Restrepo said. « If the day after the next day he’s mercurial extradited… that will lead to a strengthening of the peace settlement ».

One doable pause is a enhance for correct-hover presidential candidate Ivan Duque and his Democratic Heart birthday party’s scheme to roll abet the peace accord.

Fine and transparent judicial therapy of Santrich, nonetheless, may well well make stronger both the accord and « pro-peace » political events by quashing accusations that FARC criminals are initiate air the laws.

« The subject is being well got by public concept as it shows the peace accords are no longer a pact for impunity – opposite to what its most radical opponents pretend », Basset said.

Per analysts, it appears the Santos govt and the judicial system will now need to drag a subtle line between respecting the foundations of the peace accord and the FARC while, furthermore no longer going « light » on Santrich.

« Right here is a 2d of reckoning, a prime reveal to the institutions created by the peace process – and in particular these touching on to transitional justice », says Restrepo. « They need to speak the FARC that they cannot even entertain the doable for continuous in prison tell without the phenomenal threat of prosecution. » 

Would possibly presumably well furthermore simply composed the secure of illegality be stumbled on to entangle more FARC commanders, nonetheless, it will be fatal for the peace accord.

« A nephew of [commander] Ivan Marquez became furthermore captured; that tends to point no longer in direction of a individual determination, nonetheless a collective determination by the FARC to continue with drug trafficking », frail Vice President Calderon said. 

« If or no longer it’s proven that it’s miles a collective FARC operation, it may in all probability well well mean that the total heads of the organisation are asked for extradition, that may well per chance indubitably be a lethal blow to the peace process ».