Will North Korea be the following Iraq for the US?

On January 30, the Washington Post dropped a bombshell: Victor Cha, broadly considered because the incoming US ambassador to South Korea, had been rejected by the White Rental for the job.

Cha, a hardliner, is smartly known both in Washington and at some level of the South Korean political establishment for his unwavering faith in sanctions in opposition to North Korea. An tutorial by coaching, he served as director for Asian affairs on the Nationwide Security Council at some level of the Bush administration.

Cha used to be no longer an very finest candidate from the attitude of the centre-left South Korean govt, currently busy pursuing rapprochement with North Korea. But the sage that Cha’s nomination used to be cancelled on sage of he didn’t toughen the so-called « bloody nostril » military chance – inflicting small hurt as a warning to the regime in Pyongyang – came as a shock. It suggests that US President Donald Trump may well maybe maybe additionally neutral be far more reckless than he has been perceived to be.

It be pleasing to negate that Trump has minced no phrases relating to North Korea since taking office one 365 days ago. He has called North Korean chief Kim Jong-un the whole lot from « a sick pet » to « Diminutive Rocket Man » to « short and fleshy », prompting Pyongyang to unleash its hang legit diatribe.

Beside the Twitter insults, there were intimidation ways employed in opposition to the regime. Trump has threatened to unleash « fire and fury » on North Korea and has called negotiation a extinguish of time. Trump has additionally mobilised warships and bombers to patrol cease to North Korean territory. And South Korea and the US held « broad » joint military exercises in August and December last 365 days.

Washington additionally successfully lobbied for much stricter sanctions in opposition to Pyongyang on the UN Security Council, rousing Kim Jong-un’s ire.

The Trump administration’s behaviour till now, with out reference to how unwise, may well maybe maybe well quiet be rationalised to a level given North Korea’s a kind of missile launches and a nuclear experiment at some level of 2017. One of those missiles used to be, in accordance to the North’s hang propaganda machine and heaps of consultants, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in a position to reaching the continental US.

Trump is playing Russian roulette with Korean lives, now to no longer demonstrate lives of all others who’re living here.

 

But now it looks Trump is decided to eradicate the standoff to the following level.

On January 1, global media had been riveted by Kim Jong-un’s assertion suggesting hobby in sending a North Korean sport delegation to the Pyeongchang Olympics in South Korea. The two Koreas held a gathering within the De-Militarized Zone (DMZ) on January 9 and confirmed North Korean participation within the games. Since then, rounds of discussion agree with helped decrease tensions on the peninsula, albeit causing displeasure in no little section of the South Korean inhabitants over what’s considered as extreme lodging of an enemy.

Even when Trump is acknowledged to agree with called the resumption of inter-Korean engagement a factual thing, the US vice president, Mike Pence, reportedly criticised the attain, announcing North Korea will « hijack » the Olympics for its hang « propaganda ». It be clear Washington wasn’t express material with sitting support and watching inter-Korean affairs unfold with out having a verbalize.

The identical day Cha’s pickle turned public, Trump gave his first Converse of the Union take care of forward of Congress, where he talked about the tensions with North Korea at length. What many US commentators agree with eminent is the similarity between that speech and those George W Bush gave within the early 2000s to define the invasion of Iraq. Treasure Bush, Trump wondered the credibility and legitimacy of the regime, emphasising the risk it poses to the US and insisting that time for fixing the downside may well maybe maybe additionally neutral be running out.

Meanwhile, the Contemporary York Times reported on February 1 that the White Rental desires the Pentagon to return up with detailed plans for a military assault in opposition to North Korea – one thing the Department of Defense is reluctant to make for fear that Trump may well maybe maybe well in actuality utilize them.

I even agree with acknowledged forward of that many in Washington assume battle is inevitable. And now a colleague of mine, Steven Borowiec, says the sensation is shared in his circle: « In Seoul, each time journalists or diplomats obtain for drinks after work, the topic of dialog is virtually the least bit times, no longer if, but when and the intention in which the Trump administration will provoke battle with North Korea. »

Obviously, one can no longer fully rule out the chance that Trump is warmongering in repeat to frighten Kim Jong-un into making concessions, but is Trump – a businessman who declared financial wreck six cases – in actuality that factual of a dealmaker? Or will his foolhardiness push the Korean Peninsula into battle?

Trump is playing Russian roulette with Korean lives, now to no longer demonstrate lives of all others who’re living here. « [T]here are 230,000 American citizens in South Korea, » wrote  Victor Cha in a January 31 realizing portion for the Washington Post. « The president would be placing at risk an American inhabitants the dimensions of a medium-dimension US city … on the conclusion that a loopy and undeterrable dictator will possible be rationally cowed by a demonstration of US kinetic vitality, » he added.

Half of South Korean media looks to be in a dispute of disbelief, judging by the articles that screech – citing some « excessive-level American govt legit » – that Victor Cha’s dismissal used to be no longer over variations in policy opinions, or quote the US Department of Converse spokeswoman as announcing Cha had never been nominated for the ambassador put up within the first situation. And I will no longer blame such retail outlets for desirous to ignore actuality.

Now, the onus is on Korean President Moon Jae-in. Despite largely supporting the US-led stress ways on North Korea since his election last Can also, Moon used to be the one who invited North Korea to be part of the Olympics so as that there would be a discount in tension. He has additionally had the total sense to negate there may well maybe maybe additionally neutral additionally be no battle with out South Korea’s consent, which technique no battle the least bit. Then again it is no longer fully clear if he in actuality has the flexibility to quit the US, may well maybe maybe additionally neutral quiet Trump are searching to delivery an assault or to raise both Washington and Pyongyang to the negotiations table – which is what home media are announcing Moon intends to create within the attain future.

Trump may well maybe maybe additionally neutral be true about one thing: Time is running out. Now no longer for stopping North Korea from having an ICBM with a nuclear warhead, but for stopping the US from presumably starting one other silly battle on the earth. « [I]n the intervening time, we will derive thru the Olympics and presumably one thing factual can come out of the Olympics. Who knows, » acknowledged Trump on February 2.

That is a narrow window of opportunity. After the games, all bets are off.

The views expressed in this article are the creator’s hang and make no longer necessarily judge Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.