Doubts over affect of Putin’s Syria withdrawal declaration

On a brief and surprise stopover, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin landed in Khmeimim airbase in Syria’s Latakia early on Monday.

Addressing Russian troops ahead of him on the tarmac, an upbeat and triumphant Putin claimed navy victory in the battle-torn nation and provided that a « major share » of the deployed drive could well also now return dwelling.

It was the first talk over with to Syria by a Russian head of order since 2010. Yet, the declaration wasn’t the first of its kind.

In March 2016, Putin had in an identical vogue provided a pullout of « basically the major share » of his troopers, who had been backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since 2015. In the months that adopted, nonetheless, Moscow ramped up its navy presence all over again, ahead of declaring a identical « scaling down » at the end of ultimate 12 months.

As in both of these situations, Putin said on Monday that Russia’s Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility would continue their frequent operations.

This led many to downplay the navy significance of the Russian president’s most trendy declaration.

« Here’s no longer a withdrawal, since Russia is maintaining its air and naval bases, » George Alam, a political analyst in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, advised Al Jazeera.

« And Putin did suppose, ‘if terrorists attain assist, we can strike them’. So as that formula Russia’s navy strength remains to be show masks in Syria. »

US troops in Syria

Alam said Putin’s orders could well even agree with a particular plan: to send a accurate message to the US.

Describing the determination as « political », Alam said it was Russia’s diagram of asking the « worldwide community to stress the US to withdraw its troops from Syria ».

He added: « Russia is troubled by what it sees as the illegal presence of US troops. »

Final week, the Pentagon disclosed that there are about 2,000 US troopers in Syria, four times as many as it had been publicly acknowledged ahead of.  

Navy Colonel Get rid of Manning, Pentagon spokesman, said US troops would remain in Syria, even as the battle in opposition to the Islamic Explain of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also identified as ISIS) neighborhood nears its end.

« The US will protect a stipulations-primarily based navy presence in Syria to wrestle the possibility of rebel-led insurgency, stop the resurgence of ISIS and to stabilize liberated areas, » he said.

The Syrian authorities, nonetheless, has accused Washington of rising with excuses to get rid of a presence in the primarily Kurdish-managed northeast.

Final month, Jim Mattis, the US secretary of defence, had also said his nation « could well also no longer ultimate poke away » from its efforts in Syria.

‘Unique stage’

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Beirut, said that the US had chanced on itself « marginalised » on the diplomatic entrance, and a  navy presence would give it « more leverage in future negotiations » on Syria’s future.

Over the final 12 months, UN-subsidized Syria  talks in Geneva had been increasingly overshadowed by a separate direction of in the Kazakh capital of Astana led by Turkey – which supports some rebels groups – and Russia and Iran, both allies of Assad.

« Russia is pushing for a separate peace direction of to that of the United Countries, » said Khodr.

« It’s hoping to host what is identified as the Syrian Congress on Nationwide Dialogue that will bring together the Syrian authorities and the opposition early next 12 months. »

Saying that a « new stage » had been carried out in Syria’s disaster, Putin said final month that the proposed congress « will watch at basically the major questions about Syria’s national agenda ».

« First of all, that is the drawing-up of a framework for the future structure of the order, the adoption of a new constitution, and, on the premise of that, the preserving of elections below United Countries supervision, » he advised journalists after a meeting with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in the Gloomy Sea resort of Sochi.

‘Message to Iran’

Russia began its Syrian intervention in September 2015, after the Syrian authorities appealed for navy succor in opposition to riot groups.

The navy deployment helped turn the tide in favour of Assad’s ill forces. Russia’s air campaign, nonetheless, has been blamed for hundreds of civilian deaths.

The number of Russian troopers in Syria is not any longer identified, but US estimates agree with beforehand advisable it varies from Three,000 to 6,000 navy personnel on the flooring. An self reliant Russian navy expert lately advised AFP files agency that as many as 10,000 troopers and interior most contractors could well even agree with participated in the battle. 

In November, Assad thanked Putin for his pork up and for « saving » his nation.

Elie Hajj, a political analyst, said Putin’s uncover for a partial withdrawal was also a message to his dangle ally, Iran, amid stress by the US and Israel to curb Tehran’s have an effect on in the draw.

« The message to Iran is that there’s no need so that you simply can protect completely in Syria … there’s no must extra elevate your presence, » he advised Al Jazeera.

« The massive navy operations are over and it is time for a political resolution. »

Reporting by Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr