Why is Russia helping Turkey in Afrin?

On January 20, Turkey launched an air and ground offensive, which it called « Olive Branch », against the Kurdish-managed enclave of Afrin in northern Syria.

Because the offensive progressed impulsively, it become evident that such an mettlesome operation couldn’t have been that you just should well additionally contemplate of with out Russia’s mutter approval.

First of all, the operation required the Turkish Air Force to enter Syria’s airspace – one thing Ankara couldn’t have shunned consulting Russia. Furthermore, sooner than rechannelling Turkish-backed Free Syrian Military (FSA) forces to Afrin, Ankara wished assurances from Russia that Bashar al-Assad would no longer pick profit of the topic and take a look at to recall Turkish-managed positions within the province of Idlib.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the US-backed alliance of Kurdish and Arab opponents in Syria, furthermore knew that it could well maybe maybe be no longer doable for Turkey to originate the operation « Olive Branch » with out coordinating with Moscow. Which capacity, SDF representatives impulsively expressed their disappointment with Russia’s stance on the state.

Normal Sipan Hemo, a commander for the Kurdish Peoples’ Security Objects (YPG), the leading Kurdish power within the SDF, acknowledged Russia has « betrayed the Kurds ». He added that « there’ll approach a day when Russia will apologise to the Kurds for this lack of principles. »

With the originate of the operation, Russia clearly become a Turkish accomplice within the eyes of the Kurds. It is sophisticated no longer to accept as true with the Kurdish evaluate, nonetheless a shut examination of finest year’s developments reveals that the cooperation between Moscow and Ankara regarding the prolonged stoop of Afrin, on the expense of the Kurds, began prolonged sooner than Turkey launched its operation against the enclave.

The seeds of the operation « Olive Branch » have been planted finest summer season, at some level of talks between Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Turkish Chief-of-Group Hulusi Akar in Istanbul. As outcomes of those talks, Moscow gave consent to the partial exercise of Syria’s airspace by the Turkish air forces, paving the approach for Turkey’s offensive on Afrin.

Ankara began elevate its protection power presence shut to the Kurdish enclave over a month within the past, after reaching an settlement with Moscow on the delineation of the de-escalation zone in Idlib.

Moscow’s approval of the operation Olive Branch become even more clear on the day the hostilities began, when the Russian Ministry of Defence offered the withdrawal of Russian troops from Afrin.

Also, in the short assertion it issued about the operation on January 20, the Russian Ministry of In a foreign country Affairs confined itself finest to an duty of « state » that become once interpreted as a « inexperienced light » to Turkey’s actions. 

Russia’s stop sport

Despite the indignation of the Syrian Kurds, cooperation with the Turks on the state of Afrin is far more priceless for Russia than battle of words.

Russia’s relationship with the Kurds has by no approach been in line with prolonged-timeframe, strategic cooperation. Quite the opposite, at some level of its history, Moscow has broken-down « the Kurdish card » finest when it wished to assign a compromise with the worldwide locations within the Center East, particularly with Turkey.

And within the case of Afrin, Moscow would now not owe the YPG extraordinary. Throughout the Syrian disaster, the community allied itself with the US and, de facto speaking, positioned itself on the reverse aspect of the battle. The Kurds rejected Russia’s provide to switch the territory below their protect an eye on in Afrin to the Syrian regime, in change for safety ensures. Washington become once unable to abet its YPG allies, and this gave Moscow an further replace to all over again instruct the illusory nature of US safety ensures.

In addition to, cooperation with Ankara is of predominant importance for Moscow on the 2nd. Turkey is doubtless one of many co-organisers of the Congress of Syrian Of us, which is being held on January 29-30 in Sochi. 

The forum has domestic political significance for the Kremlin, because it’s far never any longer finest a deepest initiative of Vladimir Putin, nonetheless furthermore coincides with the starting of his election advertising campaign. The Russian president wants to approach the presidential elections in March 2018 as a peacemaker and a victor. He wants to supply his voters a victorious conclusion of the protection power battle in Syria, after which situation his authorities because the most foremost player which would bring peace to the battle-torn country. 

Also, by cooperating with Ankara on Afrin, Moscow has created an replace that would enable it to resolve the topic in Idlib with out protection power escalation. Russia knew that a protection power battle of words in Idlib would have been costly for Damascus and its allies, because it would have led to a brand unique humanitarian catastrophe comparable to the one who occurred a year within the past in Aleppo. No longer to command that this kind of battle would have exhausted the already veteran Syrian army, forcing Russia to scheme to the Syrian battle entrance.

Russia’s tacit approval of the operation Olive Branch, on the contrary, led to reciprocal concessions from Ankara in Idlib. The identical day Turkey launched its operation, the Syrian regime offered that it had seized the opposition-managed Abu Duhur airport in Idlib with out any hindrance. 

In a roundabout scheme, Turkey has one more, crucial bargaining chip against Russia: the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. Moscow has pinned excessive hopes on the project and it would now not want anything to hinder its construction.

Moscow’s consent to a Turkish operation in Afrin coincided with a assertion from Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller, confirming a prolonged-awaited settlement on the enchancment of a 2nd gas line passing thru the territorial waters of Turkey.

This makes it unlikely for Ankara to stoop the project within the shut to future, because it did in 2015. If the enchancment continues with out hindrance, the Turkish Stream will also be performed in 2019 as planned.

The views expressed in this text are the creator’s have and accomplish no longer essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.