Q&A: South Africa’s ruling ANC faces ‘a deep disaster’

Johannesburg, South Africa – It’s far being called a battle that might resolve the manner ahead for South Africa.

This weekend, about 5,000 delegates will drop on Johannesburg to vote for the future leader of the African Nationwide Congress (ANC).

The two main candidates, Cyril Ramaphosa, the occasion’s fresh deputy president, and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, former chairperson of the African Union Excessive Price and President Jacob Zuma’s ex-spouse, are facing off in a single in every of essentially the most contested elections in ANC historical past.

The winner of the vote will presumably turn into president when the nation takes to the polls in 2019.

A exact deal is at stake, as the South African authorities below Jacob Zuma has been dogged by limitless allegations of corruption, leaving the ruling ANC within the midst of its biggest disaster since it used to be formed in 1912.

Al Jazeera spoke to honest political analyst Ebrahim Fakir about what the conference ability for the ANC and for South Africa.

Al Jazeera: Is that this election a referendum on Zuma or is it about implementing new policies?

Ebrahim Fakir: Nobody knows what ANC branch delegates vote for. They vote for any quantity of things and are [moved] by correct policy ideas.

Originate now now not discard [the fact] that ANC delegates who shuffle to vote [may be] field to bribery or that they need to now not proof in opposition to dread and thuggery; they would perhaps moreover very successfully be intimidated to vote a dispute manner.

Though ballots are supposed to be secret, there are delegates of their branches [who] accept as true with made selections on  how they’d admire their delegates to vote. Nevertheless the secrecy ability the delegates can vote any manner they need.

Al Jazeera: The two main candidates are Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. What are their visions for the future?

Fakir: Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s is presenting a programme of radical financial transformation and Cyril Ramaphosa’s is proposing a « Unusual Deal ».

Dlamini-Zuma wants a retributive diagram to the path ahead, which ability that land expropriation without compensation and other populist policies.

I reflect we’re now now not making enough of [the] disaster within the ANC. I will now now not test out one diagram out.

Ebrahim Fakir

Ramaphosa talks about the Dim Industrialist Programme and strategic inclusion within the economy hinged on all of the empowerment policies being [enacted].

The argument is that those policies accept as true with now now not labored together in consequence of a extinct teach [and] in consequence of [the] manipulation of institutions and processes, depraved meddling of treasury and the treasury’s inability to stem the tide of corruption.

With the Ramaphosa authorities, you might need extra folks ready to make investments, which is what’s going to support within the short. In the long-timeframe, how you turn that around and … take care of that self belief is a particular request.

Anything else that can happen will happen within the short and we [will] test out what happens from there. What we’ve is 5 – 6 years of instability.

Al Jazeera: The language being extinct to listing Ramaphosa suggests he is the extra credible candidate. Why is this the case? He used to be Zuma’s deputy since 2012, as a minimal. 

Fakir: In fragment, it’s miles about the [candidates’] personalities, however the media has made it that; it shouldn’t be.

The personalities accept as true with turn into a proxy for policy. One space are deemed too populist and institutionally unstable [Dlamini-Zuma] and the opposite [Ramaphosa] are considered as extra prudent.

I haven’t seen grand media consideration to their policies. Ramaphosa is merely seen as anti-Zuma and Dlamini-Zuma is seen as his protector.

If it used to be [really] all about personalities, Ramaphosa might be found as wanting as Dlamini-Zuma, however the contradiction is that she has now now not been alive to with the depraved presents made now now not too long within the past.

In the deep questions of [state corruption], Ramaphosa used to be fragment of [the] cupboard, in addition to to [former finance minister] Pravin Gordhan and every person who now says they’ve to rehabilitate the ANC.

They’re all deeply compromised. One manner or the opposite, the ANC has walked itself into a conundrum.

Al Jazeera: So claims that the ANC is in disrepair are now now not exaggerations?

Fakir: No, they don’t seem like exaggerations.

There is a deep disaster within the ANC and it goes to each stage, whether or now now not it’s miles [the] policy or ideological outlook of the occasion or personalities or institutional and organisational [issues], or the policy making machine, [or] whether or now now not or now now not it’s about the connection between the policy makers and the parliamentary caucus and the contributors of the government.

The disaster cuts in every manner you might reflect of.

Endure in mind, the ANC has extinct its majority [in parliament] in outrageous ways. Even folks which accept as true with space themselves up as desirous to present a grab to and rehabilitate the ANC, are complicit within the manner the institutional edifice has damaged down.

I reflect this would perhaps moreover very successfully be the ANC’s closing hurrah. They would perhaps indubitably accept as true with the upright bunch of folks have interaction and engage a test out at to rehabilitate the organisation, however there might [be] this form of [pushback] from losers that someone who needs to manipulate in any atmosphere would accept it now now not easy to accept as true with so.

If truth be told, I reflect we’re now now not making enough of [the] disaster within the ANC. I will now now not test out one diagram out.

Al Jazeera: So grand has been made of President Zuma’s characteristic in this disaster, however the rot didn’t space in with him alone. Can this conference resuscitate the ANC’s founding values?

Fakir: I reflect or now now not it’s long past too far … and that’s an organisational request. And resolving an organisational request is contingent on resolving a policy and identification request.

That is [why] there is now not any accord. Protection and identification [have] given upward thrust to the biggest fractures upright now, which filter all the manner down to the lower-stage with personality assassinations and [in-fighting].

Yet all once more, have interaction policy: you might accept as true with two fundamentally divergent views.

One talks about radical financial transformation and repudiates the 1994 consensus about the transition. [The 1994 consensus is considered as the beginning of democratic government in South Africa, the inception of a rights-based dispensation with positive discrimination to address historical injustices.]

On the opposite aspect, we say that we can win the 1994 consensus, we excellent-looking accept as true with to flee up the brand new policies we’ve.

Nevertheless that requires a switch within the manner wherein the ANC capabilities. We now accept as true with to rehabilitate the ANC and rehabilitate the teach through things admire enquiring into [state corruption].

So there are two fundamentally opposing ideological visions. The diagram you reconcile this throughout the identical organisation?

Al Jazeera: What are the conceivable scenarios going ahead?

Fakir: If Dlamini-Zuma wins, you might accept as true with to accept as true with interplay into consideration if those on the shedding aspect will win that and pause within the ANC brooding about that they’ve fundamentally opposing visions. In the occasion that they accept as true with, will they work in opposition to the authorities and undermine the ANC?

And if she wins, can the ANC raise the 2019 elections? Some indications are that they would perhaps now now not. they’re going to fall wanting a majority and they’re going to accept as true with to create a minority authorities or cobble a coalition [together] with little parties. In the occasion that they can now now not accommodate the losers, the probability of a split is high.

If Ramaphosa wins, and he can now now not accommodate the others, there might be an equal probability of [a] split. If he does attain out, he’ll accept as true with to compromise with them, which is ready to erode his accept as true with legitimacy, and he might now now not govern with any stability.

In 2019, he might have interaction the election, however he’ll erode his credibility through compromise and now now not bustle through selections for rehabilitating the ANC or reversing [state corruption] … There [will be] instability.

Even supposing a candidate admire Zweli Mkhize wins, there will most certainly be rankle from all aspects.

This Q&A has been edited for length and clarity.

Narrate Azad Essa on Twitter: @AzadEssa