Is Russia frightened of losing Syria?

The conflict in opposition to the Islamic Impart of Iraq and the Levant appears to bear ended. Although the armed community is no longer going to depart, its territorial sustain a watch on has been nearly entirely worn out after its two « capitals » – Mosul and Raqqa – had been liberated and most of its territories in Iraq and Syria had been recaptured.

In Syria, besides the few final areas under ISIL sustain a watch on, there would possibly perhaps be Idlib province which is dominated by Ha’but Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, previously al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Entrance). Russia, Iran and Turkey tend to launch a joint operation in opposition to the HTS there after which divide the province into spheres of affect. 

The leisure of Syria is both under the sustain a watch on of the regime or the US-allied Kurdish Of us’s Safety Fashions (YPG). On chronicle of of two years of Russian intervention and assaults by ISIL and HTS, a necessary a part of the correct armed opposition used to be liquidated, and we can philosophize that the duration of energetic hostilities has on the sphere of an pause. The complications of peace and steadiness bear turn out to be grand extra essential to Syrians than complications of vitality and the long lumber political philosophize.

As Syria enters a brand fresh de-escalation a part of the conflict, the role of Russia in it comes into expect. Quickly the Syrian regime will no longer need protection power backing as grand as financial improve. And that Russia can even merely no longer be ready to compose.

Russia’s put up-conflict approach in Syria

As we utter, Bashar al-Assad have to purchase into consideration himself the « winner » in the civil battle very grand thanks to Russian backing and its protection power intervention. But, this does no longer necessarily guarantee Moscow a delighted presence in put up-battle Syria.

All the strategy by means of the armed conflict, the price of Moscow for Damascus used to be the protection power assistance and deployment of its forces which performed a key role in the protection power advances of the regime. But with the transition to the put up-conflict duration quickly to open, the importance of the protection power element would gradually decrease, giving system to the financial and economic system of cooperation.

Russia, nevertheless, does no longer bear the financial capacity to make investments closely in Syria after the pause of the conflict.

 

Iran has already declared that this can even merely wait on Syria financially. In a fresh phone dialog with Bashar al-Assad, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani assured him that his country « is willing to actively take part in Syria’s reconstruction ».

Russia, nevertheless, does no longer bear the financial capacity to make investments closely in Syria after the pause of the conflict. In this context, its positions in Syria no longer seem so convincing. This has compelled Moscow to take care of discontinuance that alliances with Tehran and Ankara in Syria can even merely no longer be so purposeful in due direction and that it must search out fresh allies for the put up-conflict duration. In consequence, the Russian government has upped its efforts on keeping the negotiating direction of under its sustain a watch on to compose high-quality it’s no longer ousted from its region as kingmaker in Syria.

It is the have to point out its exclusivity and irreplaceability that dictated the most modern Russian initiatives on Syria: from Vladimir Putin’s statement about the have to sustain the Congress of the Syrian of us in Sochi to a assortment of conferences that the Russian president held final week with the leaders of Center Japanese worldwide locations.

Particularly revealing in this appreciate used to be the « surprising trick » with Bashar al-Assad showing up in Sochi. This used to be Assad’s 2nd commute out of his country since 2011; in 2015 he went again to Russia to meet Putin. For Moscow, the Syrian president is a roughly a « liquid asset », which the Russian management is making an strive to seriously change into diplomatic success. His consult with used to be supposed to improve Russia’s monopoly over the Syrian file. It sent a obvious message to the realm community that Moscow holds the keys to Damascus and is the correct patron of the regime ready to push it to the negotiations desk.

Presently after the assembly, Putin hastened to share its outcomes with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel and the United States. And two days later, at a assembly with Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he demonstrated his « main and guiding » role in the Russia-Iran-Turkey triangle.

The hazard for Moscow is that at some point soon Damascus would possibly perhaps well well cease responding to Russian stress.

 

No matter its wanted role in the Syrian negotiating direction of, its resources and capabilities are clearly no longer ample to sustain it. Russia needs another partner in Syria which is willing to guarantee funds for reconstruction in the put up-conflict duration. And that partner have to be willing to route the financial flows by means of Moscow.

The easier difficulty is that Russia doesn’t bear grand time to complete this. Assad’s regime would possibly perhaps well well turn out to be grand extra intransigent as its « victory » solidifies and it would possibly perhaps perhaps most likely well be grand extra sophisticated for Moscow to push it to take a seat down down for negotiations.

Presidential adviser Bouthaina Shaaban and Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad bear already expressed their scepticism about the negotiation direction of under the auspices of the UN. The initial refusal of Damascus to take part in the negotiations in Geneva under false pretences signals that the Syrian regime is playing a waiting game.

The regime in a roundabout method needs to sustain negotiations absolute top after the opposition is entirely disarmed and after it makes high-quality that there’s no longer this form of thing as a interference « in the interior affairs of the country ». Generally, it needs the opposition to capitulate and it’s patiently searching forward to it.

The hazard for Moscow is that at some point soon Damascus would possibly perhaps well well cease responding to Russian stress. That is at possibility of be a necessary loss for Russia.

The views expressed listed listed below are the creator’s bear and pause no longer necessarily judge Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.