Turkey, Greece and the technology of ‘Cool Peace’

When Celar Bayar arrived in Athens on November 28, 1952, he may maybe well not maybe envisage that he will most likely be the first and only Turkish president to ever seek the advice of with neighbouring Greece.

Sixty-five years later, one other chief’s title will be added this week to that outlandish record.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who changed into as soon as no longer even born at the time of Bayar’s outing, will land in the Greek capital on Thursday for a landmark two-day seek the advice of with aimed at conserving dialogue open between two countries which dangle historically been at odds over a quantity of thorny disorders.

« Without a doubt, President Erdogan’s seek the advice of with is ancient, » talked about Alexandra Voudouri, a out of the country policy expert at MacroPolis, an Athens-basically based political and financial diagnosis web express.

« It’s miles fundamental, basically for its symbolism … and comes at an extremely basic time for the traits in the broader express, » she told Al Jazeera.

Apprehensive previous

The two NATO allies dangle prolonged shared a tumultuous relationship, fuelled by ancient rivalries and mutual distrust stretching support centuries.

Greeks lived below Ottoman rule for some four hundred years, sooner than combating and a hit independence in the 1820s and 30s. About One hundred years later, the republic of Turkey changed into as soon as basically based by Kemal Ataturk following the defeat and expulsion of Greek forces from Anatolia by his troops.

Since then, the two neighbours dangle lurched via the decades surrounded by militarised disputes and bitter prejudices – as effectively as the occasional rapprochement.

At the worst of times, they’ve come shut to war, because it came about in 1996 over conflicting claims to possession of unpopulated islets in the Aegean Sea.

At the supreme of times, they’ve sought hotter ties, because it came about in 1999 after successive lethal tremors in both countries sparked an outpouring of mutual sympathy and a political willingness to address differences in the so-known as earthquake diplomacy that followed.

Switch and cultural ties dangle since strengthened and channels of communication remained open, with an increasing quantity of conferences at a out of the country minister and top minister stage taking space correct via the last few years.

Erdogan himself final visited Greece in 2010, when he changed into as soon as top minister.

« The relationship between Greece and Turkey has continuously been marked by usaand downs, » Emmanuel Karagiannis, a senior lecturer at King’s Faculty London, told Al Jazeera.

« The most modern allotment is also characterised as ‘Cool Peace’. The two countries dangle maintained high-stage exchanges, but tensions remain high. »

Atomize up island

At the coronary heart of the strained ties, previous disputes over maritime and airspace rights in the Aegean, lies Cyprus.

The Mediterranean island has been effectively divided since an Athens-backed coup in 1974 and a subsequent Turkish invasion.

Since then, its Greek- and Turkish-Cypriot communities dangle lived on either facet of a 180km-prolonged, UN-monitored ceasefire line cutting across the island, while repeated diplomatic efforts to stop the partition, which also luxuriate in Greece and Turkey as guarantor powers, dangle failed.

The most up-to-date reunification present, described as the supreme likelihood to broker a deal in generations, collapsed in dramatic model final summer – and analysts keep in mind nothing obedient will come out of the upcoming talks in Athens.

« No one must unruffled ask of a miraculous enact on the Cyprus anguish, » Sinem Akgul Acikmese, professor of world relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University, told Al Jazeera.

Analysts in Greece agreed, stating that nothing will alternate sooner than the Greek-Cypriot presidential elections in early 2018.

« I estimate that there will be an are attempting for some own of informal understanding to keep the flooring that, in the case of any future reliable stipulations for the resuming of the talks, the mistakes and omissions of the previous is no longer going to be repeated, » Aggelos Athanasopoulos, senior diplomatic and European Union affairs editor at Greek each day To Vima, told Al Jazeera.

Conserving dialogue open

In some unspecified time in the future of his time in Athens, Erdogan will meet Prokopis Pavlopoulos, his Greek counterpart keeping a largely ceremonial post, sooner than having high-stage discussions with Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s top minister.

Erdogan will also head to Thrace, a express in northeastern Greece the keep there is a Muslim minority. There, he’ll help Friday prayers at a mosque in the metropolis of Komotini.

Sooner than the talks, diplomats from both countries hailed the purpose of interest on the « certain pattern of the relations via dialogue at the absolute best stage ».

Of their assembly, Tsipras, 43, and Erdogan, sixty three are expected to chat about disorders of mutual hobby, including programs to come commerce and financial ties, as effectively as cooperate in transport, tradition and tourism.

Nonetheless, no valuable breakthrough is expected in any of the prolonged-standing contentious disorders.

« Conserving dialogue broadly open via this type of certain agenda has evident significance, » talked about Acikmese. « Nonetheless, it’s over-realistic to foresee ‘a brand new chapter’ in bilateral relations with such pragmatic dialogue channels as prolonged as there is not the sort of thing as a political settlement on disorders of battle between the two facets. »

Refugee deal, Turkish troopers

The two leaders will also focus on regional security and « terrorism », but one other topic high on the agenda of all facets may maybe maybe be the refugee disaster.

In March 2016, the EU – of which Greece is a member – and Turkey signed a controversial deal aimed at stemming the influx of refugees to Europe.

The settlement, which sees Greece and Turkey raise nearly all the accountability, has ended in a captivating lower in arrivals in contrast to the tip of the disaster in 2015.

Erdogan has previously accused the bloc of no longer conserving its facet of the deal about visa-free stride for Turkish voters.

Turkey hosts almost three million Syrians, and Erdogan has also threatened to open the country’s border gates with the EU for refugees to pass freely.

With Greece unruffled struggling to manage and arrivals currently selecting up, Voudouri talked about the Greek facet at the talks « will teach on preserving the deal to lead clear of a return to the wretchedness of 2015 and early 2016 », when better than 1,000,000 folks crossed into the country.

« Greece wants to keep an emphasis on this and right Turkey’s compliance with the deal, attributable to there is a obedient wretchedness over the scale of migrant flows by boat from Turkey, » added Athanasopoulos. « The wretchedness on the islands has reached a tipping point. »

Hotspots on the islands of Lesbos, Samos and Chios are recordsdata superhighway hosting up to a pair of times as many people as than they had been designed to accommodate. With iciness drawing shut, human rights groups are sounding warnings over the deteriorating stipulations in the islands’ filled and unhealthy camps.

For his allotment, Erdogan is expected to renew a Turkish demand the extradition of eight troopers who fled to Greece in a militia helicopter and sought asylum as a failed coup are attempting changed into as soon as below way in July 2016.

Earlier this one year, Greece’s top court docket ruled against extraditing the officers, drawing an mad response from Ankara which talked about it would evaluate its ties with Athens.

Tsipras has maintained that the option by the Greek justice procedure must unruffled be revered.

Turkey and the EU

Whereas it’s certain that Erdogan’s outing will dominate discussions in Greece and Turkey, his statements in Athens will also be closely watched in diplomatic circles additional away – from Brussels, via Berlin, to Washington.

His seek the advice of with comes at a time of worsening relations between Turkey and some of its Western allies, including the US.

In recent months, Turkish and EU officials dangle also been locked in an escalating war of words, with Ankara accusing some member states of backing « terrorism » and bloc leaders alleging a deterioration of democratic and human rights in Turkey in the wake of the failed coup are attempting.

« Erdogan’s seek the advice of with to Athens is one in every of the few legit journeys to an EU member country in the final couple of years on a bilateral foundation, particularly at a time of virtually misplaced hopes in Turkey’s EU accession path of, » talked about Acikmese.

Turkey applied for EU membership in 1987 and started accession talks in 2005.

Nonetheless, negotiations dangle been no doubt frozen correct via the last decade, with no growth made.

Amid the stalemate, Erdogan talked about currently that Turkey « does no longer need the EU » to any extent further, while also accusing the German and Dutch governments of « Nazi practices » after they averted Turkish ministers from talking at expatriate rallies sooner than a referendum.

Acikmese talked about « despite the truth that some mumble that this [visit to Athens] is a trace of relatively of turning in direction of Europe … it’s miles also too early and equally naive to accomplish such feedback ».

Irrespective of the heightened tensions, Ankara says that cutting off EU membership negotiations would harm all facets.

In Athens, Erdogan is expected to continue searching for the crimson meat up of Greece, which has historically maintained that it backs Turkey’s EU ambitions.

In October, one day of a seek the advice of with to the US, Tsipras reiterated its prolonged-talked about out of the country policy that it « supported the Turkish path in direction of Europe ».

Athanasopoulos, the To Vima journalist, argues that Athens’ backing for Turkey’s European point of view is basic for Greek pursuits, but point to that its impact will be restricted attributable to EU dithering.

« The Europeans are pressured referring to the technique to way Turkey, » he talked about.

« On the one hand, they look shut relations attributable to they’re panicked referring to the refugee disaster. But on the assorted [hand], they raise concerns about disorders cherish the rule of regulation and human rights which, coupled with the [heated] rhetoric, enact no longer allow for the enchancment of such ties. »